Market Analysis & Price Forecast: Gold April 2024 (11-04-2024)
Welcome to my market analysis segment where I mix the market fundamentals and TA into a price forecast.
The Fundamentals
Gold, but also Silver and many other commodities are currently rallying against the USD. Though not only against the USD, commodities are rallying against fiat currencies in general. There’s simply relatively high inflation all around the globe, yet they’re actually rallying on people’s expectations of the ‘‘impending hyperinflation’’. Though the actual probabilities on the occurance of hyperinflation in the developed world are very low in my opinion. Relative high inflation simply doesn’t equal a ‘‘road to hyperinflation’’, and to battle ‘‘relative high inflation’’ governments and central banks will be automatically steered towards making policies that reduce spending in every possible way. Which brings me to the general macroeconomic outlooks, which obviously aren’t that great to begin with. But definitely not when you keep in mind that governments and central banks are now actually incentivized to make policies that reduce spending in every possible way. Thus consumers, companies, goverments and central banks themselves might all require quick access to their liquidity and reserves in the coming period. Which is obviously not an ideal situation for commodities (thus Gold) to go through a period of serious price breakouts.
Technical Analysis
The Weekly Chart:
The Daily Chart:
Both the daily and weekly chart show a lot of similarities. Gold is either totally breaking out or it might go a little bit higher before a serious correction/reversal will take place. The indicators are simply giving off a lot of mixed signals. Though it’s obviously in a strong general upward trend. Though I find the latter scenario of either a direct or at least an imminent downward correction/reversal much more likely given the fundamentals. There seems to be extremely much support around the price range of 2050 USD, yet I don’t think that it will retrace that far either. I believe that Gold will stay in it’s strong general uptrend despite the imminent downward correction. The price range target with the higest probability in a downward correction will be around 2150 USD in my opinion.
Conclusion & Price Forecast
See the blue line on the chart below for my price forecast/prediction for the coming months. I will revisit this forecast around the time when this price forecast expires, so that will be somewhere around the end of June or the start of July.
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